Technical Summary
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s Annual Report for 2025, released on 26 March 2026, contains the first public quantification of the Alliance’s aggregated munitions demand. The Reoccurring Process for Aggregating Demand (REPEAD)—a mechanism that pools national capability requirements into consolidated procurement signals—valued collective demand for missiles, bombs, uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), and deep precision-strike systems at $145 billion (€125.9 billion). This figure represents outstanding requirements across all 32 member states and marks the largest publicly disclosed munitions procurement shortfall in NATO’s 77-year history.
The report also confirmed that all NATO members met or exceeded the 2 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) defence spending benchmark for the first time since the target was agreed at the 2014 Wales Summit. European and Canadian defence expenditure increased by approximately 20 per cent year-on-year, adding $94 billion in new spending. However, the United States continues to account for approximately 60 per cent of total Alliance defence expenditure, a proportion that has prompted sustained political pressure for burden-sharing reform.
Analysis of the Munitions Demand Signal
REPEAD Requirement Categories
The $145 billion aggregate demand spans several ordnance categories critical to both conventional deterrence and active warfighting. Guided missiles—including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs)—dominate the requirement. Air defence munitions feature prominently, reflecting lessons from Ukrainian theatre operations where interceptor expenditure rates exceeded peacetime stockpile assumptions by factors of 10–50. Precision-guided munitions (PGMs) for air-delivered strike—including Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs) and equivalent European systems—form a substantial category, as do deep precision-strike systems designed for ranges exceeding 300 km.
UAS procurement, spanning both expendable loitering munitions (Category I, <25 kg) and medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) platforms, represents a newer requirement that was largely absent from pre-2022 REPEAD cycles. The inclusion of UAS in the munitions demand aggregate reflects the operational lesson that uncrewed systems are functionally consumed at rates comparable to traditional guided munitions in high-intensity conflict.
Stockpile Depletion Context
The $145 billion figure must be interpreted against a backdrop of sustained stockpile depletion. Since February 2022, NATO members have collectively transferred significant quantities of artillery ammunition (155 mm high-explosive, HE-FRAG, HD 1.2 G), anti-armour guided missiles (Javelin, NLAW, Stugna-P), and air defence interceptors (NASAMS, IRIS-T SLM, Patriot PAC-3 MSE) to Ukraine. Rheinmetall Chief Executive Armin Papperger publicly stated that European stockpiles were “nearly empty due to ongoing conflicts,” a characterisation consistent with estimates that multiple NATO members hold fewer than 5 days of wartime ammunition expenditure in reserve.
Secretary General Rutte acknowledged progress, noting that Alliance production capacity had increased “sixfold compared to a couple of years ago.” However, the REPEAD data indicates that production acceleration has not yet matched the cumulative demand signal. The gap between current output rates and the $145 billion requirement implies a multi-year procurement cycle even at expanded production levels.
“We have been able to increase production sixfold compared to a couple of years ago.” — NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Annual Report 2025
Industrial Base Implications
The REPEAD demand signal has direct implications for the defence-industrial base (DIB) across the WOME (Weapons, Ordnance, Munitions, and Explosives) sector. For 155 mm artillery ammunition alone, NATO’s 2026 production target stands at 267,000 rounds per month—a rate that requires coordinated output from facilities in the United States (Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, Lake City), Germany (Rheinmetall Unterlüss, with an 8.5 billion euro framework agreement targeting 700,000 shells annually), France (Nexter/KNDS), and emerging producers including Canada and Australia.
The aggregated demand signal serves a deliberate function: by consolidating national requirements through REPEAD, NATO provides industry with the long-term demand visibility needed to justify capital investment in new production lines, energetic material synthesis, and workforce expansion. Without such signals, manufacturers face the risk that government orders will revert to peacetime levels once the immediate crisis subsides—the “boom-and-bust” cycle that hollowed out the European munitions industrial base between 1991 and 2022.
Personnel and Safety Considerations
The scale of the munitions procurement programme introduces workforce and safety challenges that bear directly on WOME professionals. Accelerated production of energetic materials—including TNT, RDX (cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine), Composition B, and insensitive munitions (IM) fills such as IMX-101—places increased demand on qualified explosives workers, quality assurance inspectors operating under AQAP-2110 (Allied Quality Assurance Publication, Edition D), and Government Quality Assurance Representatives (GQARs) conducting mutual quality assurance under AQAP-2070 (Edition B). The competence gap between generic ISO 9001:2015 quality management and WOME-specific technical qualification—a gap documented in ISC analysis of the AC/327 and AC/326 governance divide—becomes more acute as production scales.
For ammunition storage, the expanded procurement volumes will require increased capacity across NATO’s network of Ammunition Supply Points (ASPs) and field storage areas. Compliance with AASTP-1 (Allied Ammunition Storage and Transport Publication, Edition 1, Change 3) Quantity-Distance (QD) separation requirements and national implementations of DSA 03.OME (UK) or equivalent regulations presents a logistical challenge as stockpile volumes grow to meet wartime readiness targets.
Data Gaps and Confidence Assessment
- National breakdowns: The $145 billion figure is an aggregate. Country-level allocations and priority rankings within REPEAD remain classified. Confidence: LOW.
- Expenditure rates: The report does not specify assumed wartime expenditure rates underpinning the requirement. Without these, independent validation of the aggregate demand is not possible. Confidence: LOW.
- Industrial capacity gap: Current aggregate NATO production output for the identified munition categories is not publicly disclosed. The gap between the $145 billion demand and existing production commitments cannot be precisely calculated. Confidence: MODERATE.
- Timeline: The target date for fulfilling the $145 billion requirement is not stated. Multi-year procurement authority (up to 2032 in the US case) suggests a 5–7 year horizon. Confidence: MODERATE.